My wife's father just read Malcolm Gladwell's Outliers: The Story of Success and explained that IQ and being a genius don't mean jack when it comes to success. A work ethic does though. It's called the 10,000-Hour Rule. Work at your craft for 20 hours a week over ten years and most likely you'll be successful.
I failed as a novelist while adhering to this stringent work ethic. In fact, my novels grew progressively egregious over time, which ironically was to my advantage since only when the novels had become undeniably woeful could I see with utmost clarity that it was time to move on to some other project.
Oh well. Gladwell should have included the don't bang your head into a wall over and over rule. Or as Einstein put it: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
I haven't read this yet, buy I have it on hold at the library. I would question if there is a chicken-and-egg effect at work: We analyze successful people after the fact... oh look, Bill Gates had 10,000 hours of programming experience. But aren't there lots of other people who had 10,000 hours under their belt and didn't turn out to be Bill Gates? I think many people could put 20,000 hours into something and still fail. There's more to it.
Posted by: Ed | November 17, 2008 at 11:56 AM
That's it exactly. After the fact analysis.
Posted by: jeffrey McMahon | November 17, 2008 at 12:51 PM
That's exactly right, there is an element of "survivor bias" here.
When I was a kid I noticed that many celebrities would get on Johnny Carson, etc., and say their families told them not to go into show business, and at the time I wondered how their relatives could be so short-sighted. Only much later did I realize that for every person who makes it on Carson, there are what - 1,000? 10,000? - who are selling movie tickets or cleaning carpets because they skipped college to become an actor or whatever.
Posted by: Mike W | November 17, 2008 at 04:33 PM
I meant "survivorship bias", not "survivor bias".
Posted by: Mike W | November 17, 2008 at 04:48 PM
I remember as a teen getting teary eyed when Henry Winkler and Kate Jackson gave their inspiring stories of success and hard work. I was such a fool.
Posted by: jeffrey McMahon | November 17, 2008 at 04:50 PM
Also, I would say this is in a way a self-selected sample--only the successful filled out the survey.
Posted by: Ed | November 17, 2008 at 05:12 PM
This book and others like it sell well because it feeds the American mythos of hard work and success--that there exists a certain formula out there, and if one only follows said rules, then *anyone* can be a world-beater (of course you have to buy this book to find the secret formula is!).
Posted by: Ed | November 17, 2008 at 05:16 PM
Americans love formulas. Americans, unlike Europeans, believe ANYTHING can be fixed with the proper know-how. We can be downright annoying sometimes.
Posted by: jeffrey McMahon | November 17, 2008 at 05:25 PM
Panasonic RF-2800 in what appears to be great shape, for $100 at ebay item 250327601580. Seller has had 2 negatives and 2 neutrals past 12 months.
Posted by: Paul | November 17, 2008 at 07:22 PM
It's been snapped up already, Paul. We gotta stop helping these sellers, unless we get a commission!
Posted by: Ed | November 17, 2008 at 07:31 PM
Wow!
Item listed 7:11 pm on ebay. Item mentioned here 7:22 pm. Item sold 7:26 pm!
These are the best types of ebay deals. A good price, and no bidding. I almost always lose out in bidding but have snapped up some nice items which were priced well with a "buy it now".
Posted by: Paul | November 17, 2008 at 07:36 PM
Maybe we should have a mailing list for ourselves to point out such deals ... I'm not picky; so if I know for example that you or Jeff or others are interested in a radio, I will not bid so that the price doesn't go up unnecessarily and one of us gets it.
Posted by: Paul | November 17, 2008 at 07:41 PM
I went to an estate sale last week. Minutes before I found them, somebody snapped up the following items:
- Kenwood R-5000 receiver, $300.
- Icom IC-R7100 receiver, $175.
- Sangean ATS-803A radio, $15.
- Sony ICF-2001 radio, $5.00.
... and more!
Now, guess what? All of these items are on ebay now. See for instance the seller of items 360107751517 and 360107750064.
Posted by: Paul | November 17, 2008 at 07:47 PM
A wonderful radio and a real beauty on ebay: the Philips/Magnavox D2999; item 270304646770. Yet another radio I won't be able to afford!
Posted by: Paul | November 17, 2008 at 08:26 PM
I'm half-way through "Outliers" and it's a better book than I originally thought. Gladwell is such a smooth writer. He actually sets out to debunk the Standard American Success Storymodel and scores some good points, some less obvious than others. I like debunkers--much more interesting to read than the bunkers. Take out a library copy.
Posted by: Ed | November 20, 2008 at 03:30 PM