Herculodge

Hellacious Fallacy #4: Repeated Denials Will Create a New and Dangerous “Reality”

 I once knew a European soccer coach employed by an American university who had a very beautiful girlfriend. To protect this coach’s identity, we’ll call him Vitaly. One day, Vitaly told me, his girlfriend walked in while he was in bed with another woman. He explained that he repeatedly lied through his teeth to his girlfriend that what she saw “wasn’t what she thought it was.” For several months, Vitaly said things were tense with his girlfriend sometimes exploding into rages, throwing pots and pans at him, and clawing his eyes out. But a year of repeated denials paid off. With the seeds of doubt planted deeply into his girlfriend’s psyche, Vitaly said that one day she got down on her knees and begged him to forgive her for questioning his fidelity.

Much to my shock and abject horror, Vitaly then said to me, “I still haven’t forgiven her.”

 

Hellacious Fallacy #3: Being “Right” at All Costs

 

We can also call this fallacy the Stupidity of All-Out Vindication, which is the need to prove to our critics and detractors that we are justified in our beliefs and actions by any means necessary.

Imagine for example an insanely jealous boyfriend who obsesses over the belief that his girlfriend is cheating on him all the time. He invests enormous amounts of anguish and energy deluding himself that his girlfriend is committing acts of infidelity. Eventually, this boyfriend WANTS his girlfriend to cheat on him so that he can say to himself that he is not insane in his obsession and hurt feelings.

This is the essence of All-Out Vindication. We actually desire an undesirable outcome if it “proves” we are “right.”

Another example: A hypochondriac feels stomach pain and is convinced something is deathly wrong with him. After being ridiculed by family and friends for his hypochondriac ways, he is “happy” when it turns out, with the stamp of medical authority,  that the soreness in his stomach evidences a terminal disease. 

 

Hellacious Fallacy #2: Anecdotal Testimony

 

In a previous post about causation and correlation, Tom Wc addressed a related fallacy, the use of anecdotes as evidence.

For example, star wide receiver Chris Carter recalled Randy Moss' greatest performance in which Moss ate nothing all day until before the game, he chugged a box of candy, Hot Tamales, before dominating offensively.

Athletes looking for maximum performance would be well served NOT to look to Moss' "training methods." Moss's nutritional program is an exception, not a rule.

Likewise, a college student who gets drunk the night before a calculus exam and gets 100% correct is not proving that alcohol enhances test performance.

We should throw anecdotes out the window and rely on statistical evidence. 

Hellacious Fallacy #1: Confusing Causation with Correlation

When we hear the rooster crow in the morning and then we see the sun “come up,” we make a huge mistake if we attribute the morning light to the rooster’s crow. Some ancient cultures made this error and ended up worshipping the rooster as the Sun God.

Today, we read message boards on the internet praising some cold remedy or other: “I took Brand X and in a few days my cold was gone.” Here’s the thing: Colds tend to go away on their own. The people spending billions on bogus cold remedies have confused causation with correlation. In contrast, causation is a proven direct link between one “event” and another. For example, eating a diet of Hot Pockets and Toaster Strudels while watching TV 20 hours a day does cause obesity. Driving while sleep deprived does cause an increased likelihood of a car accident.

How many fake panaceas, cures, and elixirs would lose their marketing appeal if the average consumer could distinguish between causation and correlation? 

Note:

I read the rooster example in a book back in the early 1980s. I can't remember the book or author but wanted to thank him for an example that has stuck with me over the years.